A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
